Publications

Blog

Economics Observatory

Is the UK on track for growth in every postcode?

Every UK region grew in 2024, but nearly a third of local authorities experienced a fall in total output that year. Will Shepherd analyses the latest official data helps to explain this striking variation - and offers an...Read more

CEP report

Skills for growth: what the UK can learn from international approaches for incentivising employer-based training

This report reviews international evidence on approaches to increasing employer investment in training, focusing on three broad models: coordination between employers and training providers; sector-based employment and t...Read more

POID Working Paper

Measuring the prevalence and direction of Innovation: A pilot approach using LLMs

This paper pilots a method for measuring firms? product and process innovation at scale. Our approach uses LLMs to complete a detailed innovation survey for a sample of 600,000 companies operating across 40 countries. Th...Read more

POID Working Paper

A theory of endogenous degrowth and environmental sustainability

We develop and quantify a theory in which rising incomes and technological change redirect economic activity from material production toward intangible quality, generating an endogenous decline in emissions intensity. We...Read more

Blog

VoxEU

Growth through innovation bursts: Why industrial policy should not bet on size

Industrial policy is back on the agenda across advanced economies, with a growing channelling support towards large incumbent firms on the premise that they are the most capable innovators. This column uses data on Frenc...Read more

Journal article

International Economic Review

Scientific isolation? The consequences of Trump's China initiative on Chinese research

The 2018 China Initiative by the Trump administration complicated procedures and reduced funding for US-China research collaborations. Using Scopus data, we analyze its impact on Chinese research. We find that it signifi...Read more

Blog

LSE British Politics

Net zero and growth go hand in hand

Net zero is often criticised as being responsible for high energy prices and for stalling economic growth. In her interview to Anna Bevan, Anna Valero argues that not only does net zero not stall growth, but that innovat...Read more

POID Working Paper

Geopolitics and Export Miracles: Firm-level evidence from U.S. ware procurement in Korea

How did geopolitics shape East Asia's economic development? We find that U.S. military procurement during the Vietnam War - a shock which peaked at nearly 3% of South Korean GDP, rivalling the Marshall Plan - catalyzed K...Read more

CEP occasional paper

UK national productivity trends: getting the data right - August 2026 update

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-ba...Read more

POID Working Paper

Defense Promotion and Industrial Development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion - especially innovation policy - can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence...Read more

POID Working Paper

Industrial Policy in the Global Semiconductor Sector

The resurgence of subsidies and industrial policies has raised concerns about their potential inefficiency and alignment with multilateral principles. Critics warn that such policies may divert resources to less efficien...Read more

Blog

LSE Business Review

ChatGPT or Zoom - which broke the career ladder?

Entry-level hiring has fallen sharply across white-collar work. An emerging explanation has been that generative AI is to blame. Drawing on their new study of hundreds of millions of hires and job adverts, Peter John Lam...Read more

CEP discussion paper

Defense promotion and industrial development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion - especially innovation policy - can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence...Read more

CEP discussion paper

Is data privacy a losing game? Evidence from Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy

We study the impact of Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy, which requires apps to obtain explicit user permission before cross-app tracking, on the mobile gaming industry. Using SensorTower US data on the top...Read more

Blog

Project Syndicate

Silicon, Not Software, Will Decide the AI Race

The AI race is no longer just about building better models. As competition shifts from scientific discovery to deployment, success increasingly depends on computing power, advanced semiconductors, physical infrastructure...Read more

Blog

The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes (podcast)

Will AI solve the productivity puzzle? With Nick Bloom

Productivity has been a problem for the past 15 years. In developed countries, weak demand, a lack of competition and a paucity of new ideas have all been blamed. Could AI finally reverse that trend? Soumaya speaks to St...Read more

CEP discussion paper

The equilibrium impact of credit frictions: evidence from default risk using firm-level data

This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions...Read more

POID Working Paper

The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from default risk using firm-level data

This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions...Read more

Journal article

Journal of Industrial Economics

Asymmetric pass-through and competition

We study the retail price pass-through of four major tax changes in petroleum products using daily pricing data from gas stations on small Greek islands. We find that (i) the pass-through of the tax hikes is five times h...Read more

CEP occasional paper

UK national productivity trends: getting the data right

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-ba...Read more