Publications

POID Working Paper

Geopolitics and Export Miracles: Firm-level evidence from U.S. ware procurement in Korea

How did geopolitics shape East Asia's economic development? We find that U.S. military procurement during the Vietnam War - a shock which peaked at nearly 3% of South Korean GDP, rivalling the Marshall Plan - catalyzed K...Read more

CEP occasional paper

UK national productivity trends: getting the data right - August 2026 update

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-ba...Read more

POID Working Paper

Defense Promotion and Industrial Development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion - especially innovation policy - can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence...Read more

POID Working Paper

Industrial Policy in the Global Semiconductor Sector

The resurgence of subsidies and industrial policies has raised concerns about their potential inefficiency and alignment with multilateral principles. Critics warn that such policies may divert resources to less efficien...Read more

CEP discussion paper

Defense promotion and industrial development

Major economies are rearming, and rearmament is itself industrial policy. I ask whether defense promotion - especially innovation policy - can drive industrial development beyond the defense sector. I synthesize evidence...Read more

CEP discussion paper

Is data privacy a losing game? Evidence from Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy

We study the impact of Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy, which requires apps to obtain explicit user permission before cross-app tracking, on the mobile gaming industry. Using SensorTower US data on the top...Read more

Blog

Project Syndicate:

Silicon, Not Software, Will Decide the AI Race

The AI race is no longer just about building better models. As competition shifts from scientific discovery to deployment, success increasingly depends on computing power, advanced semiconductors, physical infrastructure...Read more

Blog

The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes (podcast):

Will AI solve the productivity puzzle? With Nick Bloom

Productivity has been a problem for the past 15 years. In developed countries, weak demand, a lack of competition and a paucity of new ideas have all been blamed. Could AI finally reverse that trend? Soumaya speaks to St...Read more

CEP discussion paper

The equilibrium impact of credit frictions: evidence from default risk using firm-level data

This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions...Read more

POID Working Paper

The Equilibrium Impact of Credit Frictions: Evidence from default risk using firm-level data

This paper examines the impact of credit frictions arising from firm-level default risk on aggregate economic performance. We build a micro-to-macro model with heterogeneous firms and sector-specific production functions...Read more

CEP occasional paper

UK national productivity trends: getting the data right

We compare standard productivity estimates of UK output per worker derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with newly released estimates based on more reliable "Real Time Information" (RTI) administrative data. LFS-ba...Read more

Blog

Polytechnique Insights:

Europe is falling behind, can it pick up the pace when it comes to innovation?

Philippe Aghion writes for Polytechnique Insights on how Europe must prepare its own AI strategy if it wishes to make up ground lost to the U.S. in terms of GDP per capita, productivity and disruptive innovations....Read more

Journal article

American Economic Review:

Nobel lecture: The economics of creative destruction

The expression "creative destruction" was coined by Joseph Schumpeter to describe the process whereby new innovations displace old technologies. Schumpeter himself would acknowledge a filiation with Karl Marx, and more p...Read more

Blog

VoxEU:

When trust in official statistics declines

Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agenc...Read more

CentrePiece article

Informing industrial strategy for clean technologies

Spillovers from innovation can boost regional growth...Read more

Blog

VoxTalk (podcast):

Making Defence Spending Pay

Defence spending is rising whether voters like it or not. The UK has committed to 2.5% of national income and aims for nearer 3.5% over the next decade, GBP30bn a year for each percentage point. What does the country get...Read more

Blog

Working Knowledge - Harvard Business School:

Want Workers to Reskill? Show Them Who They Can Become

New career in IT or construction? It's not easy to get workers to reskill because jobs for many people are more than a paycheck, says research by Raffaella Sadun....Read more

Journal article

Management Science:

How do chief executive officers make strategy?

We survey 262 chief executive officer (CEO) alumni of Harvard Business School and gather evidence on three aspects of each executive?s strategy practice: how formalized it is, how it is developed, and how it is implement...Read more

Blog

Project Syndicate:

The Mismeasurement of Europe's Productivity

The Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman uses the wrong metric - purchasing power parity - to make the case that Europe is not lagging far behind the US in terms of productivity. The right metric shows that the gap is g...Read more

Blog

LSE British Politics:

A more productive economy is being delivered under this Labour government

The Labour government set raising economic growth as its central target while in power. The new figures published by the Office for National Statistics suggest that the economy is doing a lot better than expected. John V...Read more