Publications

Blog

IMF Finance and Development magazine :

Innovation's Unseen Frontier

Notwithstanding Plato's 2,400-year-old proverb, necessity alone is not the mother of invention. It also requires opportunity. An individual's likelihood of becoming an innovator reflects parental background in terms of i...Read more...

Blog

LSE Impact of Social Sciences:

The next innovation revolution should be democratisation

Innovators are most likely to be men from privileged backgrounds. Xavier Jaravel argues that democratisation and widening of access to innovative careers worldwide is key to boosting long-term growth and addressing today...Read more...

CentrePiece article

Revving up wages: How rising productivity has benefited car industry workers

Fast productivity growth in the UK car industry led to staff in the sector earning about 37% more than the average manufacturing employee by the 2010s. But Andreas Teichgraeber and Tim Obermeier show that while wages wen...Read more...

CentrePiece article

in brief... Do try this at work: the AI chatbot that can interview at scale

Large language models can conduct interviews at speed and at scale. Friedrich Geiecke and Xavier Jaravel present a new open source platform to support this innovative form of qualitative research....Read more...

CentrePiece article

How China’s rise has shaped innovation and exit among European solar firms

Should policymakers protect European firms by restricting imports of solar technology from China? Pia Andres finds that Chinese competition has resulted in many European firms going out of business, but it has also promp...Read more...

POID Working Paper

Return innovation: The knowledge spillovers of the British migration to the United States, 1870-1940

This paper documents that out-migration promotes the diffusion of innovation from the country of destination to the country of origin of migrants. Between 1870 and 1940, nearly four million British immigrants settled in ...Read more...

POID Working Paper

AI-generated production networks: Measurement and applications to global trade

This paper leverages generative AI to build a network structure over 5,000 product nodes, where directed edges represent input-output relationships in production. We layout a two-step 'buildprune' approach using an ensem...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Distributional consumer price indices and the measurement of inequality

Differences in consumption patterns between lower- and higher-income households suggest the potential for inflation inequality, but evidence on the scale and drivers of this disparity remains scarce. This column uses 'di...Read more...

POID Working Paper

Poaching, raids and managerial compensation

This paper presents a model of employee poaching with asymmetric employer learning. Firms poach managers not only due to their track record but also for their personnel-specific information about workers. In equilibrium,...Read more...

POID Working Paper

Migration and innovation: The impact of East German investors on West Germany's technological development

We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berli...Read more...

POID Working Paper

How curvy is the Phillips curve?

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is challenging. Using micro data from large panel surveys of UK and US firms we show that the response of prices t...Read more...

Blog

Project Syndicate:

What AI Means for Growth and Jobs

While many commentators warn that AI will undermine employment and offer only modest productivity gains, empirical studies continue to suggest otherwise. With the right policies in place, the technology holds immense pot...Read more...

POID Working Paper

The China shock revisited: Job reallocation and industry switching in US labor markets

Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experien...Read more...

POID Working Paper

Firm climate investment: A glass half-full

We analyse the importance of climate-related investment using a large economy-wide survey of UK firms. Over half of firms expect climate change to have a positive impact on their investment in the medium term, with aroun...Read more...

POID Working Paper

The new digital divide

We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US househol...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Redirecting AI: Privacy regulation and the future of artificial intelligence

Some artificial intelligence technologies are more data intensive than others. This column examines how data privacy regulation shaped the trajectory of AI innovation across countries, looking at patent applications from...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Leveraging AI to navigate 'deglobalisation'

Trade wars, industrial policy, and myriad other supply chain disruptions have fast become the 'new normal'. Yet, given the highly opaque and complex nature of production processes, knowing how to navigate this rise of de...Read more...

Blog

Project Syndicate:

The missing monetary-policy tool

Central banks should prepare - both legally and operationally - to carry out direct transfers to households when conventional monetary policy fails. Recent research shows that stimulus payments would increase consumption...Read more...

Journal article

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Chapter 6: The green transition: understanding and managing impacts for workers

The transition to net zero will have far-reaching and unequal effects on labour markets, as some jobs disappear, existing jobs change, and new jobs aligned with or supportive of the net-zero objective are created. The ev...Read more...

CEP report

The green industrial policy matrix: Informing an industrial strategy for clean energy technologies

This paper presents new evidence to inform industrial strategy prioritisation of clean energy technologies in the UK. It focuses on seven technology categories relevant for reducing emissions across power, heat and indus...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Firm climate investment: A glass half-full

The transition to a green economy will require large investments by firms. This column uses new survey data to study the importance of climate-related investment for UK firms. Over half of firms expect climate change to ...Read more...

Blog

Vox EU:

Design-based fiscal stimulus transfers: Evidence and macro implications

In recent years, and during Covid-19 in particular, many countries have experimented with innovative approaches to fiscal stimulus. This column reports on an experiment in France in which individuals were given a debit c...Read more...

Blog

LSE Business Review:

The EU has a transformative mechanism to reduce carbon leakage, but challenges loom ahead

When companies face steep carbon prices in a country, they often move production to places with lower or no pricing. To address this problem, the European Union created the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. But, for de...Read more...

Journal article

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America:

How working from home reshapes cities

In recent decades, economic activity has become increasingly concentrated in major global metropolises. Yet, the rise of working from home threatens this dominance of cities. Using multiple high-frequency datasets on spe...Read more...

Journal article

The Economic Journal:

Employer Screening and Optimal Unemployment Insurance

Field experiments show that employers are less likely to consider long-term unemployed job-seekers for interviews. We study the implications for optimal unemployment insurance (UI). Based on a structural model of job sea...Read more...