About this event
The rise in demand for minerals essential to digitalization and decarbonization technologies may present growth opportunities for mineral-rich low- and middle-income countries, although these nations have historically struggled to leverage past resource booms for economic diversification. This paper focuses on export restrictions on raw materials, a policy tool increasingly adopted by low-and middle-income countries between 2009-2021. It combines LLM and expert classification to identify downstream products indirectly treated via input-output relationships and products' value chain stage, e.g. raw material vs. sub-component, in green value chains. Using event studies, I find export restrictions lower upstream exports of directly targeted products in the short term but promote downstream export of sub-components within 3-5 years. What is more, upstream exports resurge within 5-7 years, potentially driven by backward linkages from downstream exports, and more than offset the short-term drop.
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