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Tracking uncertainty in a rapidly changing global economic outlook

Tracking uncertainty at a high frequency is useful in the context of the multiple shocks that have hit the global economy over the past years and to disentangle the sources of uncertainty. This column presents a new monthly text-based measure of uncertainty for 71 advanced and developing economies. The measure suggests that uncertainty has been consistently high since 2016, reaching a peak during the Covid-19 pandemic and seeing a resurgence with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the associated cost of living crisis.

Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom and Davide Furceri

17 December 2022

Vox EU

This work is published under POID and the CEP's Growth programme.