The UK is once again debating why its economy has grown slowly since the mid-2010s. This column examines the impact of the decision to leave the European Union in 2016. Using almost a decade of data since the referendum, the authors combine simulations based on macro data with estimates derived from micro data. These estimates suggest that by 2025, Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 6% to 8%, with the impact accumulating gradually over time. Investment, employment, and productivity were all affected, reflecting a combination of elevated uncertainty, reduced demand, diverted management time, and increased misallocation of resources.
Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka and Gregory Thwaites
5 December 2025
VoxEU
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/brexits-slow-burn-hit-uk-economy
This work is published under POID and the CEP's Growth programme.